Another point of uncertainty regarding the future is the high level of indebtedness in the USA. According to Moody's Analytics, the rising indebtedness of non-financial organizations, as well as the rise of riskier corporate debt securities, will lead to a new financial crisis in the US and then around the world. Likewise, China continues to grow, albeit at more moderate rates, supported by a dangerous model of public and private debt that reaches 20 “Brazils” and seems to only continue to grow. According to Bloomberg, for every dollar borrowed by the Chinese economy, only 25 cents are created in the real economy.
These points are frames of any economic scenario for the year 2019. In Brazil, the oil and gas industry is experiencing a new reality, in 2012 the average of Brent was US$ 110.00, with an average exchange rate of R$1.92. Today we have a Brent of US$ 60.00, with an exchange rate of R$ 3.70.
According to the BNDES, in 2018 R$ 57 billion were invested in the sector, and for the 2019-2021 period an average annual investment of R$ 72 billion is projected. This investment is 15 times the forecast for the automobile sector and eight times for the food sector. By 2027, oil production in the country is expected to double, reaching 5.1 million barrels per day.
The advance in exploration of pre-salt areas and the new auctions indicate an increase in the participation of the international majors. The mature field industry, with unbundled O&G exploration, makes the onshore production areas viable and this is in line with Petrobras' divestment plan.
Part of this multiplier effect of industrial expansion will be for complex engineering and automation solutions. The O&G chain is complex and around dozens of oil companies there are hundreds of suppliers. That is, despite the systemic risks, the likely scenario is that we will possibly have a new boom in the oil and gas market.
The O&G industry has very encouraging prospects and complex technological challenges, but mastering these skills can provide customized solutions for other sectors.
It is a long-tail industry, with a strong inducer effect and one of the segments that most impacts the industrial structure. The annual average in the last decade of expenditure on Research and Development was one billion Reais.
In the complex production chain of O&G, one must seek to identify a map of the supplier market and new opportunities. Another task is to identify the degree of maturity of the local industry and the new conditions for a more competitive and more open model of international integration.
Another strategic premise will be industry 4.0 skills (integrated and connected production, artificial intelligence, big data, additive industry, among others). All the challenges of digital transformation and remote maintenance are expected to greatly impact the activities of this industry. Acting in processes with advanced productivity management will be a requirement of any package of automation solutions.
